This is the time of year the calls really start to pick up from folks looking for flow predictions for the Missouri for the spring season.

Having just received the monthly Water Supply and Projected Operations report from the Bureau of Reclamation I figured I’d take this opportunity to give you the latest.

Current conditions as of February 8th have us at 3710 CFS with steady water temps just shy of 34 degrees, fairly standard winter flows and temps. The weather has been mild with daily highs generally in the high 30’s and low to mid 40’s, a trend we will see continue for at least the next 10 days.

That last substantial weather system we saw the week before last did deliver some much needed precipitation in the high country so we are indeed in that ideal winter pattern at this point with a good looking snow pack but little to no snow on the ground locally. If it wasn’t for the gusty winds, conditions really couldn’t be much better for February fishing.

Local conditions might make one think we’re destined for a low water spring but drilling down into the data, it doesn’t appear that this will be the case, at least according to the current snow pack and reservoir conditions.

With the Missouri Headwaters currently sitting at 114% of average, a favorable monthly precipitation and temperature outlook and Canyon Ferry currently sitting at 73.3% full,  it seems we may in fact get the necessary and preferred flows we need this spring.

As indicated by the chart above, our most likely scenario at this point is flows holding at a steady 4K through this month and next before bumping slightly in April and then increasing to around 8K in May before peaking in the 9500 CFS range in early June. April through July runoff inflow forecast volume into Canyon Ferry Reservoir of 2,263,000 acre-feet, or 123 percent of average is predicted.

That being said, we’ve got a long way to go so actual flow volumes will likely deviate from February predictions.

I know I’ll be receiving calls after I post this from wade fishing folks who are going to voice concern and displeasure with said projections. Here’s what I’ll say about that…

First and foremost, just to repeat, we’re a long ways out. These projections are based on climate forecast models and current snowpack conditions and reservoir volumes. Nothing is carved in stone and I’d venture a guess that it’s very possible we see something more in the minimum probable model with flows holding steady right where they’re at all season long.

Second, should we see a peak of 8k – 10K it’s important to keep in mind that this is NOT considered to be “high” flow. The mean average peak flow below Holter Dam from 1947 – 2020 was 14,061 CFS so 8 – 10 K is historically considered to be on the low side.

As far as how flows relate to fishing conditions, we LOVE 6 – 8K. The wade anglers don’t love those flows as that 6K and up starts to present challenges but looking at the bigger picture, the sustainability of the fishery is dependent upon healthy flows. We’d love to see at least a few days of those “flushing flows” in the 15K range for the health of the river but an 8K – 10K peak is certainly preferred to a sustained 4K all season long.

It’s the same story every season. Those in the know make their best educated guesses as to what we’ll see and then Mother Nature gives us whatever she wants to give us. Maybe we’ll see 4K, maybe we’ll see 20K. It’ll likely be somewhere well in between.

What I can say for sure is that there will be water and we will be fishing it regardless of how high or low the flows may be. My February gut tells me that by the second week of June we’ll be settling in to summer flows and while those early summer flows may not be exactly what you LOVE I have a feeling that boat and wade anglers alike will be enjoying the start to another amazing summer season on the Missouri. That instinct may change depending on what happens between now and April but I’ll keep you posted.

Here’s to a great season ahead.