Missouri River 3 Day Weekend Outlook

Happy President’s Day!

How will you be spending your 3 Day Weekend?

It looks to be a breezy and somewhat snowy weekend on the Missouri but I would expect at least a bit of traffic from those looking for a winter trout fix as temperatures will plummet early next week taking fishing the MO off the table at least for a couple of days. 

The weekend forecast is calling for highs in the 40’s with breezy west southwest winds and a chance for snow showers each day. Not ideal, but not terrible. I wouldn’t expect much in the way of dry fly fishing with those winds but nymphing the slow depths should be just fine and swinging and/or stripping is NEVER a bad call.

We’ll see highs in the single digits starting Wednesday before things start to trend upward again next weekend. Likely a better week for ice fishing than river fishing but not to worry, it’ll be here before you know it.

And speaking of that, the clock continues to tick on our remodeling projects as we work feverishly to wrap things up by the end of March. The good news is it’s looking like we’ll get there. We can’t wait for you to see what we’ve been up to.

Spring gear has started to trickle in and though the focus remains on our building projects we’re starting to move towards retail mode. Our hiring is (mostly) done and with any luck our crew will begin to take shape in early April.

Spring Cleaning will soon be the task at hand as we prepare the shop for season number 10! How did that happen? It doesn’t seem too long ago the clock was ticking on our original shop remodel and opening day at Wolf Creek Angler.

It’s going to be a great year at WCA!

The Shape of Water – February 2023 Edition


This is the time of year the calls really start to pick up from folks looking for flow predictions for the Missouri for the spring season.

Having just received the monthly Water Supply and Projected Operations report from the Bureau of Reclamation I figured I’d take this opportunity to give you the latest.

Current conditions as of February 8th have us at 3710 CFS with steady water temps just shy of 34 degrees, fairly standard winter flows and temps. The weather has been mild with daily highs generally in the high 30’s and low to mid 40’s, a trend we will see continue for at least the next 10 days.

That last substantial weather system we saw the week before last did deliver some much needed precipitation in the high country so we are indeed in that ideal winter pattern at this point with a good looking snow pack but little to no snow on the ground locally. If it wasn’t for the gusty winds, conditions really couldn’t be much better for February fishing.

Local conditions might make one think we’re destined for a low water spring but drilling down into the data, it doesn’t appear that this will be the case, at least according to the current snow pack and reservoir conditions.

With the Missouri Headwaters currently sitting at 114% of average, a favorable monthly precipitation and temperature outlook and Canyon Ferry currently sitting at 73.3% full,  it seems we may in fact get the necessary and preferred flows we need this spring.

As indicated by the chart above, our most likely scenario at this point is flows holding at a steady 4K through this month and next before bumping slightly in April and then increasing to around 8K in May before peaking in the 9500 CFS range in early June. April through July runoff inflow forecast volume into Canyon Ferry Reservoir of 2,263,000 acre-feet, or 123 percent of average is predicted.

That being said, we’ve got a long way to go so actual flow volumes will likely deviate from February predictions.

I know I’ll be receiving calls after I post this from wade fishing folks who are going to voice concern and displeasure with said projections. Here’s what I’ll say about that…

First and foremost, just to repeat, we’re a long ways out. These projections are based on climate forecast models and current snowpack conditions and reservoir volumes. Nothing is carved in stone and I’d venture a guess that it’s very possible we see something more in the minimum probable model with flows holding steady right where they’re at all season long.

Second, should we see a peak of 8k – 10K it’s important to keep in mind that this is NOT considered to be “high” flow. The mean average peak flow below Holter Dam from 1947 – 2020 was 14,061 CFS so 8 – 10 K is historically considered to be on the low side.

As far as how flows relate to fishing conditions, we LOVE 6 – 8K. The wade anglers don’t love those flows as that 6K and up starts to present challenges but looking at the bigger picture, the sustainability of the fishery is dependent upon healthy flows. We’d love to see at least a few days of those “flushing flows” in the 15K range for the health of the river but an 8K – 10K peak is certainly preferred to a sustained 4K all season long.

It’s the same story every season. Those in the know make their best educated guesses as to what we’ll see and then Mother Nature gives us whatever she wants to give us. Maybe we’ll see 4K, maybe we’ll see 20K. It’ll likely be somewhere well in between.

What I can say for sure is that there will be water and we will be fishing it regardless of how high or low the flows may be. My February gut tells me that by the second week of June we’ll be settling in to summer flows and while those early summer flows may not be exactly what you LOVE I have a feeling that boat and wade anglers alike will be enjoying the start to another amazing summer season on the Missouri. That instinct may change depending on what happens between now and April but I’ll keep you posted.

Here’s to a great season ahead.

February on the MO

 

If the recent past is any indication we’re in for plenty of wintery weather in the coming weeks as February has established itself as our coldest month of the winter as of late.

That being said, this first day of February 2023 is a far cry from what we’ve grown accustomed to.

With temps in the mid 40’s and howling winds on tap through the weekend it feels more like late March than early February but I suspect that could all change very soon.

If you’re looking to take advantage of the situation and get out on the water, tomorrow and Friday look to be your best bets with sustained south southwest winds of 14-16 mph and gusts up to 24 mph. Saturday looks windy with gusts up to 35 mph.

Water flows are on the drop following last weekend’s cold snap. We’re currently looking at 4200 CFS dropping back to that 3500 CFS range by the end of the week. Water temps have been holding fairly steady and are currently 34.5 degrees.

Near perfect winter water conditions. If it wasn’t for the wind these would be can’t miss February days on the MO.

As it is, I’d expect some traffic out there but there will be plenty of solitude as long as the winds persist.

Stick to the nymphing for the numbers, mix it up with some stripping or swinging and keep that midge rod rigged and ready. Should you happen to find fish up, it’s nice to be able to switch gears immediately and target those fish rather than taking the time to rig a dry fly rod when you should be fishing.

February is about to fly by and then it’ll be GO TIME. Take some time over these next couple of weeks to sort/organize your gear, replace those worn out fly lines (or those worn out rods and reels) and organize those fly boxes.

We’re doing the same here in the shop, sorting through the inventory and making room for all the spring gear that will be arriving soon.

Enjoy this last month of winter’s quiet.

Winter Returns

Winter weather on tap for this weekend with a Winter Storm Watch in effect from tomorrow morning through Saturday evening.

Highs near 50 today along with gusty winds. Rain and snow tonight becoming all snow tomorrow morning. Temperatures begin to drop Friday night and we’ll see highs in the single digits and lows in the negative digits through Monday.

Precipitation forecasts are all over the board but the Storm Watch is for the possibility of heavy snow with accumulations between 5 and 10 inches at lower elevations with 10 – 20 inches possible in most mountain areas. We’re not looking forward to the shoveling however that 10-20 in the mountains is much needed so let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

It looks to be short lived as we’ll climb back into the 30’s the middle part of next week but this is probably not the weekend to plan on fishing the MO.

The timing is perfect however as you can attend the Pat Barnes Trout Unlimited Ice Bowl Membership Drive and Winter Social at Sleeping Giant Lanes in Helena without feeling like you’re missing out on fishing. Lanes open at 4 PM.

It’s a great way to spend a winter evening knocking down some pins while supporting the amazing work done by PBTU and maybe even getting yourself involved.

Back at it next week as we close out this first month of 2023 and hopefully kick off February by getting back on the water. There’s nothing like cold, sunny days fishing midges on the MO. Bring it!

Welcome Winter

Happy Winter Solstice!

It feels like it’s been winter for six weeks already but technically we’re just getting started with today being the actual first day of winter.

It’s a statement Winter Solstice with the current temperature at -21. It’ll warm up to -20 at some point today before plummeting to -30 tonight. There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect until 11 AM today and a Wind Chill Warning in effect until 11 AM on Friday. Wind Chill currently has the “feels like” temp at -46.

I’ve decided to work from home today as our shop heater only operates in temperatures above -10.

And while there is no shortage of chatter about this apocalyptic cold snap there is plenty of reason for optimism, namely that we’re in desperate need of a good, old-fashioned winter and thus far that is exactly what we’re getting.

The cold and snowy weather definitely has its challenges, but the hope is that it’ll all be worthwhile when we’re in the midst of our summer season enjoying steady flows of cold water.

The other big reason for optimism on this cold and snowy Wednesday? It’s the aforementioned Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year. Now begins the march towards spring and summer with the days getting a little bit longer each and every day.

Long hot days and warm summer nights will be here before we know it.

So curse the cold if you must as you shovel snow with numb hands, but as you do so, keep in mind that this is the cycle, the way it’s meant to be. The cold and snow serve a purpose, as has been the case for millennia.

Winter’s beauty paves the way for those summer days we all look forward to, when we can start bitching about how HOT it is!

And besides all that, it looks like we’re headed for a warmup as temps climb back into the high 30’s and even low 40’s starting on Saturday. You could be back on the water in a matter of days. 

Cheers to Winter!

The Shortest Day Carson Ellis / Candlewick Press

By |2022-12-21T09:32:26-07:00December 21st, 2022|Categories: Shop Life, Uncategorized|Tags: , , |0 Comments

Back to the Roots

I had the pleasure of spending a couple of weeks in Michigan last month and while I’m sure it would’ve worked out either way, the onset of winter weather here in Montana in early November made it the perfect time to close up shop for a spell.

My wife and I make semi-regular trips back to Michigan but it’s generally a quick trip for a specific event. It’s been quite some time since I’ve had the chance to settle in and get the extended back to the roots Michigan experience but that’s exactly what I was able to do this time around.

With my little sister’s November wedding acting as the impetus I started formulating a plan months ago, knowing it would be the perfect time to take some time off from work at the season’s end.

My original plan included debaucherously rabble rousing with friends, deer camp, fish camp and most importantly, the rare opportunity for our dispersed family to be together for a joyous occasion celebrating a much welcomed blessed union.

Circumstances conspired against the deer camp, opening the door for several extra opportunities for sibling shenanigans as well as the aforementioned debaucherous rabble rousing. Fish camp happened in spite of some challenging winter conditions and it did end up being a long enough stay that I was more than ready to return home and settle back into reality.

Of course the saying goes that you can’t go home again meaning a return to a place from your past won’t be the same as it was, likely leading to disappointment and disillusionment, something we’ve all experienced at one time or another, but this wasn’t that. Quite the contrary as a matter of fact.

A couple of years ago a friend sent me a picture of the house I grew up in. It was in rough shape. Peeling paint, sagging roof, cloudy windows…basically a complete state of disrepair and deterioration. Definitely NOT the house I remember. Seeing that picture hit me hard at the time. The actual physical structure was deteriorating but it seemed an appropriate metaphor as everything that had made that place what it was is gone. Those lives that created my lived experience are gone from there. It’s all memories now. I didn’t like seeing it but a crumbling structure has no power over the memories of the past.

While I was back there I spent a day driving around the old haunts with my older sister who hadn’t been back in decades. We drove by that house as well as the starter home we lived in prior to the time our parents bought their dream house on the lake where they would spend the next couple of decades before both taking their respective last breaths in that house in the early 2000’s.

The structural deterioration continues and I have no need to return to that physical address again. In this sense it is true that you can’t go home again but aside from this one place and this experience, my fondness for the larger sense of “home” persists and I cherish the time I am able to spend there.

The geography has a pull on me. Particularly Lake Michigan and the Pere Marquette River on which I spent countless hours over the years indulging my passion for fly fishing and in so doing, laying the groundwork for our eventual move to Montana.

But it’s not geography that makes the place, it’s the people that make the place so hanging out with the special souls I’ve known for the majority of my life, doing our best to recreate memories of life circa 1987 was an experience that left me with nothing but happiness (and maybe a hangover or two) and no hint of disillusionment.

Seeing my little sister doing her thing, living her best life, independent of and free from the sometimes debilitating power of the trauma of the past is heart-warming and makes things right with the world. I had the honor of walking her down the aisle and giving her away which is something I’ll always cherish.

Spending that time with my family, with my sisters and nieces and nephews in particular, as well as with the best friends I will ever have, defeats any despair connected to crumbling structures or poison from the past. So I would argue that you can in fact go home again. “Home” is made of memories, old and new, and those aren’t going anywhere.

A time will come when the people that make the place are gone. Should that happen while I’m still around I’ll likely not return to the physical place but until then I will return anytime I can to sit on a Lake Michigan beach or at a Muskegon Lumberjacks game with my wife and friends and family. I will return to float the cold currents of the Pere Marquette River and I will return to sit in the fall woods waiting for a trophy Whitetail to pass by. I’ll return to hang out with best friends Pub Crawling the past and the present and I’ll return to overindulge until 4 AM, reminiscing about the past while making future plans.

None of it is HOME. All of it is LIFE well lived in my estimation.

Home is in the daily. Presently in Helena and Wolf Creek MT, engaged in the present, contemplating the future and Embracing the Arc.

 

By |2022-12-07T13:11:05-07:00December 7th, 2022|Categories: Uncategorized|1 Comment

December on the MO – Winter Has Arrived

Winter Colors!

The calendar says three weeks until winter. The weather conditions have gotten a substantial jump on that.

For all intents and purposes we’ve been experiencing winter conditions throughout the month of November and there doesn’t seem to be any end in sight. There have been some swings in temps ranging from 30’s and 40’s to single digits but we haven’t seen a sustained warming trend in over a month as evidenced by the snow on the ground, most of which arrived in early November.

Mind you Wolf Creek Angler resides in the shadows all winter long so while those areas receiving exposure to sunlight are now clear of snow, it seems as though it’s here for the duration at WCA.

Whether we were ready to settle in to winter or not this trend bodes well for our state and our sport. Snowpack looks better than it has at this point in the season than I can recall in recent memory.

Angling traffic at the moment is all but non-existent. I expect sunshine and 30’s, whenever that happens, will elicit a response and bring some traffic back to the river but in the meantime the fish have been getting a well-deserved rest from the pressure as they settle in to winter mode.

Flows are currently in the 3400 CFS range with water temps hovering right around 35 degrees. We’ll see highs in the high 20’s and overnight lows in the single digits for the next week or so which should keep things relatively quiet. The upcoming weekend looks tolerable with plenty of sunshine but given the cold temps it doesn’t take much of a breeze to drop that wind chill to uncomfortable (and unsafe) levels.

If you plan on getting out count on fighting frozen guides with frozen fingers and look to dredge the slow depths with scuds and sows. Pill Poppers, Pink Amex or Rainbow Czechs paired with Tailwater or Soft Hackle sows should be all you need on the bug front. Of more importance than bug selection will be having the right cold weather gear. If you’re going to “forget the forecast” you need to dress accordingly. Layer up and pay special attention to keeping your hands warm. Good gloves are essential but nobody like fishing in gloves so just make sure you have them at the ready. Releasing a fish can be quite an ordeal in winter conditions so make sure you have hand warmers and dry confines for those freezing hands after the release.

We’re stocked up with the best in Cold weather gear from Simms including piles of hats and gloves and layering pieces. While you’re at it, pick up a ColdWeather shirt or guide flannel or hoodie to add to those layers.

Wading conditions are favorable throughout the top section with very little shelf ice to contend with at this point. Launches are clear for the time being though it looks like a chance for some accumulation today and tonight.

Shop hours have been sporadic to say the least over these past few weeks and will likely continue to be so as dictated by weather conditions. We do have limited lodging available for the time being for $99/night plus tax. Please call for availability and also make sure you call ahead to confirm we’re here if you’re planning on stopping in to gear up on your way to the river.

We’ll be closed tomorrow (Friday) with meetings to attend in Butte and should be here Saturday morning until around noon.

Our online store has been busy this past week with Christmas shopping fully underway. Gift ideas coming soon but you can’t ever go wrong with a Wolf Creek Angler Gift Card in ANY amount good for ANYTHING and EVERYTHING we sell.

Enjoy winter’s Cold Quiet as you dream of those hot summer days on the water.

Back in the Game


Things have taken a quiet turn this first week of November as is usually the case.

Snow is falling and as of this morning the majority of our lodging is winterized and closed until spring. We’ve got three units open and available this week but those too will be unavailable starting next week.

Today would be an ok day to fish. Tomorrow looks to be better with partial sun returning and a high near 40.

Things deteriorate over the weekend with gusty winds and rain and snow likely. Winter conditions starting on Monday with snow, highs in the teens and lows in the single digits. It looks like a bit of a warming trend towards the end of next week as we climb back near 30 but it seems as though this idyllic fall season is finally about to come to a close.

This has, without a doubt, been one of the most pleasant and lengthy autumns in recent memory and as luck would have it I was able to get out and enjoy much of it with a more relaxed schedule in the shop and help when I needed it.

The wife and I did our annual trip to Whitefish and were treated to several days of amazing autumn weather. We checked out some new breweries, hiked some areas we’d never hiked before, took in a Helena vs Flathead High volleyball match and basically spent three days doing not much of anything other than enjoying fall in the Flathead.

Last week I spent Thursday and Friday on the Blackfoot with dear friends doing our annual fall streamer trip which up until this year had happened on the Yellowstone. After two amazing days on the Blackfoot, we’re planning on sticking with the current program going forward.

Having not spent a whole lot of time fun fishing this season it was so good to get out and do a trip like this, tuning everything out but fishing for two days straight. No emails, no phone calls and no tough decisions aside from which streamer to throw and whether or not it was time for another beer.

Obviously owning a fly shop and being an outfitter keeps one focused on fishing but it can also have the effect of making you feel somewhat unplugged from the energy created when you’re able to actually engage in this thing that for me evolved from a pastime to a passion. Not taking the time to reconnect can have extremely deleterious effects on one’s psyche but at the same time stepping back in after a season absent of fun fishing made this getaway all that much more enjoyable and significant to the point where I came away feeling reinvigorated and back in the game.

Note to self – take more time to fish from here on out.

On Monday I did my final guide trip of the season on the Missouri and had my best day in years with the stars aligning to deliver non-stop action. A breezy day for sure but when its 60 plus degrees on Halloween and you’re netting fish all day long it definitely makes fighting the wind more tolerable.

It’s been a great season here at WCA and while we welcome winter we’re excited for 2023 with some BIG things we’re working on that we can’t wait to share with you.

The shop will be open somewhat sporadically all winter long but while I’m reflecting on this season I just want to take this opportunity to thank all of you who shopped with us, fished with us, stayed with us or simply followed us on social media in 2022. Another great season about to be in the books thanks to all of you.

Tight Lines!

October Magic

Autumn Magic on the MO

These are the autumn days we were dreaming of as summer lingered on.

Chilly mornings. Heavy dew on the grass. The morning sun warming the soul.

Blue bird skies with a burst of oranges, yellows and reds mixed with plenty of green still holding on.

The afternoon heat quickly dissipates as the sun drops below the horizon.

Evening chill and an early shroud of darkness.

Rising fish breaking the glassy autumn stillness.

Autumn beasts lurking below

It’s October Magic on the MO

By |2022-10-04T14:02:54-06:00October 4th, 2022|Categories: Shop Life, Uncategorized|0 Comments

Late September on the MO

Summer heat has returned this week with temps back in the 80’s and near 90 tomorrow. Overnight lows in the 40’s and low 50’s have made for cool mornings so despite the daytime highs being a little warmer than what we’d like right now it still definitely feels like fall. More seasonable conditions will resume on Thursday with temps dropping back into the 60’s and 70’s with cloudy skies and a daily chance for some precipitation through the weekend.

Traffic has dropped off for us a bit this week after last week’s guide trip marathon but there are a fair number of folks getting out and enjoying these summer-like afternoons and the upcoming change in conditions will likely bring out the streamer set as well as those in search of fall dry fly action. We’re not expecting much on that front just yet but it won’t be long. While you wait for the fall BWOs you can bide your time with terrestrials, October Caddis and those dreaded pseudos.

Nymphing continues to be your best bet for numbers with sows, scuds and zebras getting it done and crayfish patterns still providing some solid action on the right days.

Conventional wisdom dictates small leechy patterns on intermediate lines if you want to try your hand at the streamer game and we’ve undoubtedly been selling plenty of Buggers, Thin Mints, Balanced Leeches, Pine Squirrel Leeches, Polar Leeches etc and getting some glowing reports. However, it’s not conventional wisdom that made us THE Streamer shop on the MO so you won’t be surprised to hear that we’ve been defying convention by running big bugs and heavy lines, searching out the water that allows it and finding plenty of success (and plenty of weeds)ourselves.

We keep the streamer bins as full as the supply chain allows so be sure to make us your first stop of the day for the best streamer selection on the MO and a variety of specialty lines and leaders to fit your preferred technique.

We’re down to the last of the summer gear but we’re fully stocked with cool weather essentials like Simms WCA Challenger hoodies and guide flannels as well as a full selection of hats, gloves and layering and of course waders and boots from Simms, Redington and Korkers. We stock Simms G3 and Freestone waders as well as Redington Sonic Pro waders and Escape wading pants.

Our fall rod and reel sale has been a huge success and is still going strong.

Our lodging is busy but not SOLD OUT on most nights. Give us a call for last minute reservations. Our guide calendar has peaked as we start to close out the 2022 campaign. We have openings throughout October and despite having had our busiest guide week of the fall last week we feel like the best fishing of the fall is still ahead of us.

It’s definitely the home stretch with the winter’s quiet looming but that being said it’s currently 80 degrees and sunny with clear blue skies above and a symphony of fall color….it’s the best of fall fly fishing in Montana. Get out there!

We’re open at 7 AM daily for all of your Missouri River fall fly fishing needs.

Go to Top