We’re already nearly a week into May and things are heating up both literally and figuratively. We hit 80 degrees yesterday and will see low 80’s again today before cooler temps arrive tomorrow with a chance for some precipitation.

Flows on the river have stabilized in the 7400 cfs range with water temps climbing steadily into the high 40’s. The fishing has remained spotty overall but depending on the day and the section we have been putting together some pretty good days out there, mostly on the nymphing side.

As runoff starts to get underway around the state we continue to receive a lot of calls inquiring about the flows on the Missouri and while we can’t tell you exactly what we’re going to be seeing for the season where flows are concerned,  what we can tell you is that according to the latest information released from the Bureau of Reclamation yesterday those in the know are predicting a probable status quo scenario for the next two months with a peak just shy of 8000 cfs in June.

As you can see on the chart above the most probable scenario has us at 4500-5000 cfs for the months of July and August and while there are those who prefer flows in the 3500 range I think most would agree that flows in the 5000 range are preferred. We like what we’re seeing here and hope that it holds true. Even at the Max Probable we’d be looking at a climb to around 10,500 this month followed by a peak of 12,000 in June and leveling off to around 5500 for the rest of the season. This would make things challenging for the wade anglers in June but it would also provide a much-needed flush which would be a tremendous benefit to the river. Minimum probable flows would drop to 5000 cfs this month and then level off at the 4,000 cfs range for the remainder of the season. Any of these flow predictions would be an improvement over what we’ve seen the last couple of years so with runoff predicted to render many rivers around the region unfishable into July you can expect a busy season on the MO’.

Canyon Ferry is currently 83% full which is 109% of the 30 year average. The anticipated inflow for the May through July runoff period is forecasted to be 1,533.0 kaf, or 110 percent of the 30 year average.

So that’s the latest on river flows, now on to the fish numbers.

When discussing fish numbers it’s important to remember that even though we might be talking about declines or increases in the population we’re talking about them within the context of over 5,000 fish per mile in the section from Holter Dam to Craig. Amazing numbers to be sure. There was a substantial increase in Rainbow trout numbers which rebounded to 2014 levels  after three straight years of decreasing populations. 2016 saw rainbow numbers of 4,816 fish per mile. Brown trout numbers continued to decrease for the fourth straight season with 269 fish per mile in 2016 which is still a respectable number.

Size wise we’re still looking at a majority of rainbows in the 17″ – 19″ size class….BIG fish!  A fair amount of browns in the 17″-19″ size as well though those number have dropped considerably over the past couple of years. Of note is the large number of browns in the 6″ – 8″ size class….the future looks bright!

All in all we’re very pleased with the State of the Missouri for the 2017 season. A little more water and plenty of big fish. What more could you want?

It’s been an awesome early spring on the MO’ with cooler temps and plenty of overcast skies, ideal conditions for BWO’s as well as for streamer fishing…two of our favorite things about spring.

We continue to see precipitation in the form of both rain and snow and with the cooler conditions continuing to persist around the state the snowpack is being maintained and is actually increasing in many drainages.

It looks like it’s going to be a good water year in the region and it looks like the Missouri is going to be a busy place once runoff ramps up and brings us all those seeking fishable water.

It appears as though we’ll get our first real taste of warm weather this season as temperatures hit the high 70’s and into the 80’s beginning on Thursday and lasting through most of the weekend before things return to more normal temps for early May. We’ll see plenty of sunshine throughout the week but expect the overcast conditions to return on Saturday.

Good BWO activity being reported daily though the fairly consistent abundance of bugs has not necessarily meant consistency where rising fish are concerned. When you do find rising fish they’ve been fairly willing to take a well-presented fly so keep those dry-fly rigs at the ready. I’ve been running a parachute Adams along with a Wilcox’s Micromay BWO and haven’t had any real reason to abandon that setup though a Brook’s Sprout Baetis and a Quiqley’s Film Critic is another combo that’s hard to beat. There are still gazillions of midges out there as well so midge clusters should definitely be a part of your dry-fly arsenal right now.

Nymphing is still in the transitional stages. Wire worms, Rainbow Czechs, Pink Amex, Ninch’s Bubble Yum Scuds and Rainbow Weight Flies have all been good options trailed with a sowbug or a mayfly nymph. Tailwater sows, Ninch’s Pill Poppers and Firebead soft hackle sows have been more consistent for me but Green Machines, 2 bits, S & M’s, Psycho Mays, Juju’s, purple lightning bugs and the lot have also been getting plenty of attention.

The canyon still seems to be a better option for numbers right now but there are plenty of fish throughout the system. We’ve been skipping the dam to Wolf Creek stretch as of late but there are plenty of fish being caught up there in the places you’d expect them to be. The same can be said for the Wolf Creek to Craig stretch which has been consistently solid though perhaps not as productive as you would expect it to be but it should only get better from here on out.

We’re continuing to have better luck fishing longer rigs in the deeper slower water but the short leash in shallow fast water has definitely gained momentum over the past week (especially in the canyon).

It’s a great time of year to do it all. Chase bobbers or chuck streamers until you find rising fish.

There have definitely been some tough days and the flows have undoubtedly contributed to this but overall it’s been good enough to make it worth your while. We’re currently looking at 7510 CFS with a water temp of 45 degrees.

We’ve been slammed at the shop this past week with a lot of last-minute spring special trips as well as the start of the arrival of our spring regulars. A huge thank you to all of you who took advantage of our spring lodging and guide trip special. This was by far the busiest we’ve been with spring special guide trips.

We’re booking up weekly with the majority of our guests doing the Thursday – Monday routine leaving plenty of availability both for guides and lodging during the mid-week. We shouldn’t have any problem getting you booked for lodging and/or guide trips for the next couple of weeks but once we hit late May things tend to get challenging. That being said, we do have openings here and there and cancellations do happen so please give us a call and we’ll do our best to get you in.

Official shop hours are still 7:30 am – 5 pm daily though coffee is generally on right around 7 am. If the blinds are open and the lights are on come on in.

The calls continue to come in daily regarding spring flows.

The most commonly asked question….what are the flows going to be like in June?

Our standard response is that it’s still too early to tell but that we aren’t anticipating anything out of the ordinary based on what we’re seeing and what we’re being told by those in the know.

That being said, a very wet spring could definitely make a difference.

Here’s what we know.

Canyon Ferry Reservoir is currently 82% full which is 109% of the 30 year average. The anticipated inflow for the April through July runoff period is forecasted to be 1,603.5 kaf, or 94 percent of the 30 year average.

Per the above graph the most probable flow model has us at right around 5000 cfs through the month of April ( which is almost exactly where we’re at as of today at 5030 cfs). We’ll likely see a bump to 6000 next month with a peak of 6500 cfs in June. Max probable outlook calls for a bump to 8000 in May and a peak near 12,000 cfs while minimum probable would be a steady 4000 cfs for most of the season.

We like what we’re seeing with the Most Probable flows and we wouldn’t mind a good flush of 10-12K but at this point there’s no reason to think we’re going to see the max probable flows. Snow pack remains above average throughout much of the region which very well could mean a busy spring on the Missouri as the freestoners seek fishable water.

Once again, we aren’t seeing any indication that we’ll be contending with high water this spring but then again, high water is a relative concept when considered from a trout fishing perspective. If you’re a wade angler you might consider 6,000 cfs high water but from a historical flow perspective 6000 is well below average for peak flows. 6000 cfs may put some of your go-to favorite spots out of reach, or at least out of your comfort zone but keep in mind that 6000 also puts water in play that may be non-existent or just a trickle at 4000. Drift boat anglers are fine with 6,000 and would be happy to see 10K as well.

The bottom line is that we see absolutely no reason to sound the alarm. We have gotten a few calls from folks thinking they want to cancel their trips and in most cases we’ve been able to talk these folks off of the ledge.

There will be water. How much or how little we don’t know. There will be an abundance of fish. This we know. Conditions may not be ideal for everyone but they will be for some. You may need to change your approach, make some adjustments to your game. We can help with this!

Once again,  from where we sit we’re liking what we’re seeing so far and we’re optimistic that it’s going to be an exceptional season on the Missouri.

Don’t hesitate to give us a call if you’d like to talk flows or fish or tactics or anything else. Climatologists and Hydrologists we are not but we live and breathe Missouri River fly fishing every day of the year and we like talking about it almost as much as we like doing it.

If you’re looking for sunny and 70 degrees this probably isn’t your weekend to fish the Missouri but if your idea of spring fishing includes rain and snow showers and scattered thunderstorms (and streamers) then you should be here.

We’ll see some storms roll through today with gusty winds this afternoon but tomorrow and Sunday are looking good with plenty of clouds, a chance or precipitation and highs in the 50 degree range.

Current flows are cranking just shy of 4600 cfs and the water temps are looking good at right around 41 degrees. Great nymphing conditions for sure but even better streamer conditions. If streamers are your thing this is what you’ve been waiting for all winter long!

Most are fishing the canyon right now with not much good happening between the dam and Craig but if you want to stay away from the crowds I wouldn’t hesitate to fish the top. It’s got to turn on sooner or later and with everyone crushing in the canyon you could have it all to yourself.

Status quo on the rigging with pink still leading the charge. Rainbow Czechs, Pink Amex, Pinkalicious, Pink or Firebead Rainbow Weight Fly are all good options run in tandem with pink or pearl lightning bugs, rainbow warriors, zebra midges, tailwater sows, Firebead Rays and the rest of the usual suspects. We’ve also heard of the mayfly nymphs starting to get some attention. Try a Little Green Machine, S & M, Juju or a plain old Pheasant Tail. They should all be on the menu right now. And don’t forget to try the Cotton Candy Little Green Machine hand tied by the man himself, Vince Wilcox, available now at Wolf Creek Angler.

Streamers? Yes. Black, Olive, Grey. Small, medium, large. Shallows, middle, banks. Yes. Throw them. Commit to it and you may be surprised what you find lurking in the waters of the MO’.

Midges daily. Fish feeding occasionally. The dry fly opportunities will increase from here on out. Griffiths Gnats, Parachute Adams, Buzzballs and Bucky’s Midge Clusters are all great options right now. Keep your dry fly rig at the ready.

We’ve got a few trips going out tomorrow and would be happy to have a few more going out so if a cloudy and possibly rainy day on the Missouri sounds good to you give us a call. Plenty of lodging and guides available all weekend long. Don’t forget our spring special, $500 for two night’s lodging and a full day on the water. It’s the best deal on the river….bar none! If you don’t need the combo you’re looking at $350 full day guide trips and $99 lodging through the end of the month.

We’re loaded up in the shop with tons of new bugs and all kinds of new spring gear. Rods from Loop, Redington and Echo; Reels from Loop, Ross, Nautilus and Redington; wading gear from Korkers and Redington; outerwear and layering from Simms and Kast and all kinds of new logo gear. Don’t miss our sale rack with amazing clearance prices on clothing from Simms, Kast, Rep Your Water, Redington and more.

Shop hour are 8 am – 4 pm daily.