The State of the MO 2022

7,000 Trout Per Mile – source Jason Mullen FWP Fisheries Biologist

Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks Fisheries Biologist Jason Mullen delivered the annual State of the Missouri presentation last Wednesday in Helena in a meeting held at Montana Wild Education Center by Pat Barnes Missouri River Trout Unlimited and while there were some encouraging revelations, it sounds like the challenges posed by drought conditions will persist in 2022.

First the good news.

6,611 RAINBOW TROUT PER MILE.

Mullen reported the second highest number of rainbow trout over 10” long on record in the Craig section (Wolf Creek Bridge to Craig), more than doubling estimates from surveys from the previous two years. This number is second only to the 2012 estimate of 7,068.

Coupled with the brown trout estimate of 362 fish per mile which is down considerably from the long term average of 560 but still within normal parameters, that’s a trout count of nearly 7000 fish per mile in the Craig stretch. The Missouri fishery continues to amaze.

Drilling down into the data the good news continues. 2021 surveys saw an estimate of 1400 rainbows per mile in the 20 plus inch size class, a number we would expect to see drop off this season, though with the abundance of small fish in the 6” – 7” class we saw in 2020, it’s very possible the big fish trend will continue through 2022. 2021 surveys revealed good numbers of rainbows in the 9” – 10” range which should continue to bode well for big fish numbers on the MO.

The brown trout saw big numbers in the 6” – 8” range, very few in the 9” – 16” range and upward trends in the 17” – 24” range with each of those last size classes numbering somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 fish per mile. We would expect to see a lot of those fish in the 10” – 16” size range this season, hopefully with a stable population of big browns in the mix.

This is all great news on the fishery front in the Craig stretch and truly amazing when you consider the pressure on the fishery which ranked second only to the Madison in 2019, the last year for which we have data, with 154,628 angler days. It’s worth noting that this angler use figure is down from the previous two which were 170,736 and 183,479 in 2017 and 2015 respectively. It’s a lot of use no matter how you cut it but the downward trend is surprising and one I’d expect will change once the 2021 numbers are in which will include last year’s Pandemic Migration to Montana. Trip related expenses for anglers on the Missouri totaled over $60 Million in revenue in 2019 which makes the MO and fishing in Montana in general, a MAMMOTH portion of the state’s economy.

Now the not so good news.

2021 saw extremely low flows and high water temps and with not having had much of a winter the reality is that absent a very wet spring, we’re likely in for more of the same in 2022.

The Missouri saw Hoot Owl restrictions in July of 2021, the first time this has happened in over 20 years, when low flows and water temps in the 70 degree range coupled with high angling pressure caused FWP to announce the closure.

We had essentially self-imposed our own Hoot Owl restrictions for guide trips a couple of weeks prior and stopped booking new trips altogether for the summer season at that same time. It’s unfortunate, but we’re readying ourselves for similar conditions in 2022 and we’re prepared to do the same things again. Canyon Ferry is currently 68 percent full so we’ve got a ways to go and while snowpack is currently in the 70 – 80 percent range, most probable flow conditions project flows to be essentially right where there at, in the 3,000 CFS range, all season long. 

We would love to see massive amounts of precipitation over these next couple of months to bring things back into shape but as always, our main concern is doing what we need to do to take care of the resource and if this means taking a financial hit we’re ready to do so.

Pray for rain!

 

Goodbye May…Prime Time Coming Soon

Like the view? Call Wolf Creek Angler and book your Missouri River Fly Fishing Guide Trip today.

As we bid farewell to May we can’t help but look forward to what lies ahead.

High water has obviously been the major topic of conversation state-wide for the past several weeks and while we expect the Missouri to bump up against 20K by tomorrow, the hope is that the peak is soon to be behind us.

From today’s Bureau of Reclamation water order…
Tributary flows downstream of Canyon Ferry to the Missouri River have decreased which has created additional river capacity. Therefore, releases to the Missouri River will be increased in order to continue to manage the rate of fill at Canyon Ferry Reservoir.

Based on the SNOTEL data as well as conditions at Canyon Ferry we can surmise that we should be close to seeing peak flows followed by stabilization , hopefully somewhere in the 12-15K range which will keep things on target for filling the reservoir by mid June. As of today the reservoir is at roughly 88% full.

Snowpack Going Green.

So what does this mean for your 2018 Missouri River fly fishing plans?

The bottom line is that while conditions may not be what you’re used to and may in fact not be ideal, there are plenty of fish to be caught. If you don’t mind nymphing from a boat and you are willing to make some basic adjustments to your game or better yet,  let our guides take care of making those adjustments to your game, fishy days await.

We who make a living in the fly fishing industry and who write about it have been challenged this season. The winter dragged on and then the waters started to rise. Winter weather in the spring and big water are not great selling points so blogging has not been easy. We won’t tell you everything is great when it isn’t but it’s obviously not in our best interest to publish doom and gloom. There’s a fine line there between accurate reporting and embellishment and we are totally committed to providing you with honest information no matter what. We are your glass half full fly shop on the Missouri, greeting and meeting each challenge and feeling incredibly blessed to be doing so.

The fact of the matter is, that despite having to figure things out again with each big push of water, overall the fishing has been consistently good for most of the spring. This is as big as I’ve seen the river since I’ve been here.  I missed 2011 by a season which is the last time we saw water this big and I’ll be honest, it’s not only been a challenge to write about it but it’s been a real challenge learning how to fish it.

Long rigs, worms, big bobbers and lots of split shot are elementary…it’s where to fish that can be puzzling but not so puzzling that you can’t get it figured out. Just remember those thousands of trout per mile are still here and while the water is big it’s also clean for the most part. Those big muddy flood waters you’ve perhaps been seeing on the nightly news…that is not the Missouri. So if you’ve been picturing yourself in a drift boat careening down a raging torrent, dodging trees and house trailers think again.  It’s big water but it’s clean water and controlled water.

The fish are hot and hungry and while you may have to work a little harder to dial it in there is no better place to be fishing in the state of Montana right now than the Missouri. A visit to your favorite local fly shop will get you half way there with the latest info on rigging, bugs and where to go. Beyond that, spend some time watching what other folks (guides in particular) are doing out there and follow suit.

If numbers are your game your time is best spent nymphing but bring the streamer stick as well and don’t hesitate to use it, especially on the overcast days.

Traffic has been light despite what you may have heard. Its’ true that the Missouri is one of just a couple of options you have right now if you’re planning on fishing in Montana but despite this fact we are far from overcrowded.  Come experience the best fly fishing in the state, you’ll be glad you did.

That being said, if dry fly fishing is what you seek the wait continues but the good news is that when flows drop (which they’re bound to sooner or later) the dry fly fishing could just be off the charts and maybe even a little on the easy side as most of these trout have yet to be fished to with a dry fly this season. Will you be here when it happens?

Stay tuned for updates and don’t hesitate to give us a call at the shop anytime for the latest. We’re open at 7 AM daily for all of your big water Missouri River fly fishing needs.

 

 

 

 

BREAKING…..Your June Water Forecast

The anxiously awaited monthly water supply outlook from the Bureau of Reclamation has been issued and this is what it shows…

The most probable flow scenario has things peaking this month at around 7500 cfs and while we are exceeding that at the moment by about 1000 cfs the chart indicates a stabilization  in the 4000 cfs range for the summer season. Max probable would see a peak near 12K (which we saw at the end of May) and stabilized flows in the 5000 cfs range for the remainder of the season.

I’ve still heard whispers of high water coming but if we acknowledge the fact that this monthly report from the Bureau not only takes into account snowpack and forecasted weather for the region but is essentially a scientific model of flows based on those factors and how they relate to the filling of Canyon Ferry Reservoir,  then we can assume with a fairly high level of confidence in our assumption, that we’re in for a great water year on the Missouri from an angler’s perspective.

Of course we could still see above average precipitation bumping things up beyond the most probable flow predictions but the extended precipitation forecasts I’ve seen don’t really indicate this.

Canyon Ferry is currently 83% full which is 109% of the 30 year average.The anticipated inflow for the June through July runoff period is forecasted to be 898,000 af, or 99 percent of the 30 year average.

The bottom line is that if you’ve been laying awake at night worrying about high flows ruining your trip to the Missouri then I think you can start to get some rest knowing that while it may not be the wader’s delight it’s been for the past several years you should have plenty of wade fishing opportunities this summer on the MO’.

By |2017-09-21T18:57:35-06:00June 7th, 2017|Categories: Fishing Report, Uncategorized|Tags: , |0 Comments

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