We’ve been receiving some much-needed precipitation here in Western Montana over the past week including the first covering of snow we’ve seen on the ground in Wolf Creek in over a month. Snow pack is looking pretty good throughout the region though there are a few areas that are hurting, namely the Sun, Teton and Marias Rivers which are currently looking at <70% of average.
So what does it all mean for your spring and summer fishing plans? It’s still too early to tell but suffice it to say that we are thrilled to be getting snow right now. Keep it coming!
Continued accumulation and cold nights will go a long way in getting us where we want to be but as per usual we are not meteorologists or climatologists, nor are we hydrologists so we’ll leave the expert predictions to the experts. We sell fish hooks for a living!
That being said we’re happy to present you with the latest information we have from said experts and we might even venture some predictions if you ask.
This is the latest from the Bureau of Reclamation showing a bit of a dialed back “Most Probable” peak of around 4500 CFS versus the >6000 they had been predicting last month. If this holds true we’re going to see a similar year to what we had last year with flows holding close to the 4000 mark. Canyon Ferry is currently at 78% full (as of March 1st), which is 102% of average. The Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Graphic for Canyon Ferry shown below shows 93% of average as of March 1st.
If we continue to build snowpack and see average or colder than average temps for the next couple of weeks we could be in a little better shape. If it’s a wet spring we could be in really good shape and be looking at something more like the “Max Probable” with a nice flush of 10,000 or more at peak flow in June. Fingers crossed!
Notice that the difference between the Most Probable and Minimum Probable flows isn’t all that much, around 1,000 cfs for most of the season which would have us looking at flows in the 3K range. Let’s hope for Most Probable or more and know that these are things over which we have no control. You’ve heard it here before and you’ll hear it here again. There will be water, how much or how little we don’t know but we’ll take what we get and adjust our methods accordingly.
What is certain is this. We will hear complaints about the water being too high or too low, we will hear that the flows are perfect (no matter where they are at), we will hear that there are no bugs and that there are more bugs than have ever been seen, we’ll hear that there are no fish and that there are more fish than there have ever been. Everyone has something to say and we love to hear from all of you.
Our hope is for more snow and a wet spring and we’d love to see a >6,000 peak flow. Whether or not we get any of the above we are certain that it will be another awesome season on the Missouri River no matter. We’ve enjoyed a much better than average winter due to the mild weather and we’ve already had plenty of great days on the water. We hope you join us in celebrating the precipitation we’re currently receiving, in hoping for ideal spring conditions in not over thinking any of it and in enjoying another amazing Missouri River Fly Fishing season already underway.
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