As of yesterday things are looking good from a snowpack perspective with the Missouri mainstem at 104%

As of yesterday things are looking good from a snowpack perspective with the Missouri mainstem at 104%

We field a fair amount of calls every week starting around the end of November regarding the snowpack and the streamflow forecast for the Missouri for the season and while November is a stretch, late February seems like a reasonable time to start thinking about spring flows on the MO.
Our standard response is to reference the latest snotel reports and the latest flow forecasts from the USGS and maybe talk a little bit about the current capacity statistics at Canyon Ferry Reservoir, though this usually comes a little later in the spring.
Personally I generally follow this with what is essentially a disclaimer stating that nobody really knows what we’re going to see for water come spring. Snow Pack is a great indicator and we can only assume that the USGS is basing their flow predictions on some kind of sound science, but when it comes down to it we have no idea how much more precipitation we will get in the form of snow and we have no idea how little or how much rain we will see in the spring.
We are not meteorologists, nor are we hydrologists, in fact we sell fish hooks for a living but that being said we do owe our livelihood to these resources and therefore we tend to pay very close attention to what we see happening and to what we hear the experts predicting is going to happen.
We love to talk about this stuff – and there are some who actually know a thing or two about it, but again, the bottom line is that spring will come and there will be water – how little or how much we can’t say.
So all that aside, despite a very warm and fairly dry February, the Missouri Mainstem is holding at 104% of normal snowpack and much of the state is at or above normal though there are a few areas that could really use some snow in the next few weeks.
The long-term, big picture forecasts are predicting a season of 4,000 ish average flows on the Missouri, well below the historical average but to the liking of many a wade angler.

We are anxiously awaiting the spring season and while we enjoyed the February thaw and the great days on the river that came with it we know we need a little more winter so we’ll gladly take it as we continue to prepare for a busy season.