Water Report 2016

Let the 2016 prognostication begin!

The frequency of calls  related to 2016 river flows has increased substantially over the past week as folks start to hone in on their plans for the spring and summer.

Per usual, we shy away from predictions, especially this early in the game, as we simply don’t know what we’ll see come spring.

There’s the anecdotal discussion of the amount of snow we’ve been getting and the colder-than-average temps we’ve experienced but pair that with the current January thaw, El Nino and the long-term forecast and you’re left with the same old answer…..it’s anyone’s guess.

There are a lot of factors involved, one of which doesn’t come into play until spring. We talk a lot about snow pack and rightfully so. It plays a huge roll in what happens come spring. We’re currently sitting at around 86% of average so we would certainly like to see that number increase to over 100. It’s a fluid number which sometimes changes daily. One good dump of snow can push that number up quickly so I would just caution against reading too much into the SNOTEL  maps at this point.

While snow is important it all comes down to how wet things get in the spring. Spring rainfall amounts are the perennial wild card and while there are plenty of sources you can check out to look at long-term forecast models we are content to wait and see what happens.

We realize our wait and see approach probably isn’t of much help to those working on fishing plans. Thankfully we do have predictions from the Bureau of Reclamation to share with you. These predictions aren’t always right but we’re far more comfortable sharing predictions from “those in the know” than we are with telling you what we think is going to happen.

So by the looks of it the Bureau of Reclamation expects a water year similar to 2015, with flows likely holding steady in the 3500 to just shy of 4000 range for the winter before increasing slightly in April and May and peaking around 6000 cfs in June and leveling out at around 4000 for the summer and fall. We would be happy with this, we’d be happier with the Maximum Probable prediction of a peak of around 12k followed by an average of roughly 6000 for the summer and fall. Minimum Probable shows 3000ish right on through. We don’t care much for that!

As always, our prediction is that there will be water. Flows will likely be higher than some care for and lower than others prefer but either way we’ll be enjoying another amazing season on one of the finest trout rivers in the world.