The calls continue to come in daily regarding spring flows.

The most commonly asked question….what are the flows going to be like in June?

Our standard response is that it’s still too early to tell but that we aren’t anticipating anything out of the ordinary based on what we’re seeing and what we’re being told by those in the know.

That being said, a very wet spring could definitely make a difference.

Here’s what we know.

Canyon Ferry Reservoir is currently 82% full which is 109% of the 30 year average. The anticipated inflow for the April through July runoff period is forecasted to be 1,603.5 kaf, or 94 percent of the 30 year average.

Per the above graph the most probable flow model has us at right around 5000 cfs through the month of April ( which is almost exactly where we’re at as of today at 5030 cfs). We’ll likely see a bump to 6000 next month with a peak of 6500 cfs in June. Max probable outlook calls for a bump to 8000 in May and a peak near 12,000 cfs while minimum probable would be a steady 4000 cfs for most of the season.

We like what we’re seeing with the Most Probable flows and we wouldn’t mind a good flush of 10-12K but at this point there’s no reason to think we’re going to see the max probable flows. Snow pack remains above average throughout much of the region which very well could mean a busy spring on the Missouri as the freestoners seek fishable water.

Once again, we aren’t seeing any indication that we’ll be contending with high water this spring but then again, high water is a relative concept when considered from a trout fishing perspective. If you’re a wade angler you might consider 6,000 cfs high water but from a historical flow perspective 6000 is well below average for peak flows. 6000 cfs may put some of your go-to favorite spots out of reach, or at least out of your comfort zone but keep in mind that 6000 also puts water in play that may be non-existent or just a trickle at 4000. Drift boat anglers are fine with 6,000 and would be happy to see 10K as well.

The bottom line is that we see absolutely no reason to sound the alarm. We have gotten a few calls from folks thinking they want to cancel their trips and in most cases we’ve been able to talk these folks off of the ledge.

There will be water. How much or how little we don’t know. There will be an abundance of fish. This we know. Conditions may not be ideal for everyone but they will be for some. You may need to change your approach, make some adjustments to your game. We can help with this!

Once again,  from where we sit we’re liking what we’re seeing so far and we’re optimistic that it’s going to be an exceptional season on the Missouri.

Don’t hesitate to give us a call if you’d like to talk flows or fish or tactics or anything else. Climatologists and Hydrologists we are not but we live and breathe Missouri River fly fishing every day of the year and we like talking about it almost as much as we like doing it.